pn952. This is where New Caledonia is now: a state within a state

 New Caledonia: A Historic Agreement for a Unique Status By Paco Milhiet and Pierre-Christophe Pantz

From: RSIS Publications <publications@rsis.edu.sg>

Date: Sat, 26 Jul 2025 at 10:07 AM

RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at RSISPublications@ntu.edu.sg. No. 163/2025 dated 23 July 2025 New Caledonia: A Historic Agreement for a Unique Status By Paco Milhiet and Pierre-Christophe Pantz SYNOPSIS Fourteen months after deadly riots erupted in New Caledonia, a political agreement was reached by the French state and local political groups on 12 July 2025. The main outcome is the creation of a "Caledonian State" within the French Republic – a sui generis status, legally hybrid, situated somewhere between federalism and free association. This agreement marks a pivotal moment in New Caledonia’s institutional trajectory and has significant implications for France’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy. COMMENTARY New Caledonia is an archipelago located in the South Pacific, more specifically in the Melanesian arc. Under French sovereignty since 1853, its political landscape has long been characterised by a bipolarity for or against independence, leading to political turmoil. In May 2024, a renewed outbreak of civil unrest, which resulted in the death of 14 people, plunged the territory into deep institutional uncertainty and economic crisis.  After multiple failed mediation attempts, the summit held in the French town of Bougival, near Paris, was widely seen as a last chance at a settlement. It resulted in a groundbreaking agreement and a major geopolitical shift, paving the way for a unique political status for New Caledonia. @Paco Milhiet, d-map.com The End of a Political Crisis? Inhabited by the Kanak people for over 3,000 years, New Caledonia was annexed by France in 1853 and initially used as a penal colony. Successive waves of immigration from Europe and Asia, and the devastating impact of disease, colonial discrimination, and land dispossession, progressively marginalised the Kanak population, and they became a minority by 1963 (47 per cent).  Against the backdrop of the broader Pacific decolonisation movement, nationalist and independence aspirations emerged at the end of the 1960s. Between 1984 and 1988, political tensions escalated into near-civil war, culminating in the 1988 Ouvéa hostage crisis, where 19 Kanak militants and two French soldiers were killed.  A series of political agreements – Matignon (1988) and Nouméa (1998) – granted greater autonomy, introduced a restricted electoral roll for local elections and restored civil peace. Nevertheless, the archipelago has been classified as a non-self-governing territory by the United Nations since 1986, formally recognising its unresolved colonial status. Three referendums on self-determination were held between 2018 and 2021. All returned a majority for remaining within the French Republic, but pro-independence groups boycotted the third vote. These consultations highlighted the reality of deep ethnic divide: the Kanak population voted overwhelmingly for independence, while other communities voted to stay within the French Republic. Independence Referendums in New Caledonia Referendum question: “Do you want New Caledonia to gain full sovereignty and become independent?” In 2024, the French government's proposed reform of the local electoral roll,  triggered widespread unrest. Riots erupted in Nouméa and surrounding areas, leaving 14 people dead (including two gendarmes), hundreds injured, and extensive damage to infrastructure and businesses.  In this explosive context, and following a breakdown in dialogue between the New Caledonian partners and the State for almost four years (2021-2025), the Bougival summit marked a pivotal step. Despite persistent polarisation and opposing visions for the future, the meeting was an attempt to find a negotiated solution to a crisis that has haunted the archipelago for decades. The Bougival Agreement: A Deliberately Vague Document On 12 July 2025, the French State and New Caledonia’s main political forces – both pro- and anti-independence – reached a landmark agreement. This political compromise is unprecedented: it establishes a “State of New Caledonia” within the French Republic, a constitutional innovation combining enhanced autonomy, institutional hybridity, and shared sovereignty.  Another major innovation is the introduction of a Caledonian nationality, creating a dual-nationality system – French and Caledonian. Building on the Nouméa Accord, more competencies – including international relations – will be progressively transferred to New Caledonia. However, France will retain authority over defence, justice, security, and currency, although these competencies may eventually be handed over to New Caledonia by the next local congress. While the agreement appears to favour the pro-independence side, it also includes major concessions to anti-independence groups: the unfreezing of the restricted electoral roll to natives (estimated at +12,000 new voters), to spouses, and to people who have been resident in the country for at least 15 years; no binding referendum on independence in the near future; and increased congressional representation for South Province – a stronghold of anti-independence support around Nouméa. In theory, the Bougival agreement marks a major political achievement. In practice, however, it is a deliberately vague document, fraught with legal ambiguities that could trigger political struggles over its interpretation and implementation.   A Fragile Success and a Long Way to Ratification  The path to ratification remains strewn with obstacles. Negotiated in haste under pressure from French President Emmanuel Macron, the agreement is still only a draft. To be ratified, it must pass through a complex legislative process.  First, a constitutional reform must be approved by a three-fifths majority of the French Parliament (the National Assembly and Senate convened in Congress) – a considerable challenge given France’s current political volatility and criticisms of the Bougival agreement from key opposition figures such as Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon.  Next, the agreement will need to be submitted to a local referendum in early 2026. The outcome remains uncertain, as deep divisions persist on the ground, starkly illustrated by the police protection required for New Caledonian officials returning from Bougival who have faced threats. Although intended as a consensus-based text, the agreement has already come under fierce criticism on both sides of the political spectrum, similar to the previous New Caledonian agreements (Matignon 1988, Nouméa 1998), which were initially heavily criticised. If both hurdles are overcome, long-delayed provincial elections (last held in 2019) will be organised in New Caledonia between May and June 2026. The new assembly will then be tasked with drafting a fundamental law (basically a local constitution), followed by the adoption of an organic law by the French Parliament implementing the new agreement at the national level.  A daunting constitutional journey towards ratification.  Conclusion: Wider Geopolitical Implications The Bougival Agreement establishes a legally hybrid status – neither federation nor free associated state – with potentially far-reaching consequences. If ratified, it may bring closure to a political crisis that has plagued New Caledonia for decades.  The stakes are high. Economic recovery is now critical to avoid a prolonged social crisis. Following the May 2024 riots, more than 500 businesses were destroyed or seriously damaged, over 10,000 jobs lost, food prices spiked, and mining activity collapsed. As the world’s-fourth largest producer of nickel – accounting for 90 per cent of New Caledonia’s exports – the territory has suffered an estimated GDP contraction of 10-15 per cent.  Geopolitically, this latest episode in the Caledonian crisis will be closely monitored across the region. Several Pacific Island leaders have openly expressed support for Kanak independence, elevating the issue on the international stage. Even though the Bougival Agreement states that “New Caledonia (...) fully intends to assume its voice and place in the Indo-Pacific, in close collaboration with France”, this sequence exposes a fundamental paradox in France’s Indo-Pacific narrative: advocating for regional stability abroad while facing persistent political unrest in some of its overseas territories.  In the longer term, the hybrid status proposed in the Bougival Agreement could set a precedent for other French overseas territories – notably French Polynesia, which enjoys a comparable degree of autonomy and is currently led by Moetai Brotherson, a pro-independence president. Dr Paco Milhiet is a Visiting Fellow with the South Asia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. Dr Pierre-Christophe Pantz is a lecturer and researcher at the University of New Caledonia (UNC). Click HERE to view this commentary in your browser.  For other papers in this series, please visit here. This email is sent to you as an existing subscriber of RSIS Publications whereby you have indicated your consent to receive information and promotional materials about RSIS Publications via electronic mail. You may change your contact details or unsubscribe at any time. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU Singapore Block S4, Level B3, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798

pn951. Three parties with their pants in a twist: What Green party Tamantha Paul actually said

UPDATE 3/4/25. Excellent historical overview of police-Māori relations

Read this

UPDATE. Support for Tamantha.

Read this

ACT, Labour and National all got  their pants in a twist and completely misrepresented what Tamantha Paul actually said about the police. 

 She said:

“Wellington people do not want to see police officers everywhere, for a lot of people it makes them feel less safe, because ... it’s that kind of constant visual presence that tells you that you might not be safe, therefore here’s heaps of cops.

She was not talking about the police in general as these politicians would have you believe but about the heavy patrol beats which could intiminate some members of the public, and how they diverted police attention from other things. "The cost of those beat patrols is that it’s taking resource away from actual genuine family violence callouts and sexual violence callouts.”

Talking to ZB, Paul said the comments came from a number of conversations she had with Wellingtonians who were concerned beat patrols were tce callouts.

“I think it’s reasonable to want to address the drivers of crime rather than having police officers at the bottom of the cliff responding to those drivers of crime.

“It’s more poverty in our communities, more drug use in our communities and greater mental health need. That’s what drives crime. If we can attack those drivers and focus our resources there, then there isn’t going to be a need for beat patrols in the first places.

Hipkins misses the plot

Labour's  Hipkins said, “Tamatha Paul's comments were ill informed, were unwise, in fact, were stupid”. Asked specifically what was stupid, Hipkins said, “it was those comments where she was saying that people felt safer with seeing gang members, patched gang members on the street, compared to seeing police on the street”.

 But it was not Paul who made that comment, said Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick. “I think that people may be confusing the comments of two of our different Māori MPs there.”It was Green MP Kahurangi Carter in July last year.

ACT

ACT Police spokesperson Todd Stephenson said Paul had “spent so much time hanging out with radical left-wing student groups that she’s got law and order completely backwards”.

National

The Prime Minister said Paul was in "la-la land".

But none of these leaders actually addressed what Paul had said.

She was, hower, not uncritical of police.

"I'm not surprised that people are upset that a young, brown woman is being critical of an institution that has let her and her communities down for a very long time," she told RNZ.

- ACW

pn950. BETRAYAL!

Read what Grubsheet's Graham Davis has to say about Rabuka's attempt to change the 2013 Constitution introduced by Voqere Bainimarama  and Aiyaz Sayeed Khaiyum and the Fiji First government which guarantees all citizens, irrespective of race,  equal treatment before the law, and introduce changes which would give the Great Council of Chiefs and indigenous Fijians paramount rights.  And how he is being assisted by the National Federation party and some wealthy Indians.  Read also about Rabuka's new watch!

Click on this link

https://www.grubsheet.com.au/the-extraordinary-conduct-of-pramesh-sharma-coalition-cheerleader-and-dogla-traitor/ 

pn949. Some Rich Kiwis Care*

 

 Bruce Plested, the co-founder of Mainfreight that employs 11,000 people, is a billionaire who gives much of his money away. He  has some interesting things to say on running a business, training staff,  learning from Māori, sharing profits with his workers,  a wealth tax, and more.  In 2014 he donated $100,000 to Te Pāti Māori and $45,000 to the National Party. In 2017 he donated $100,000 to TPM and nothing to National .... Click here to read

Rahjna Patel and her husband Kantilal Prasad built a network of nearly 50 highly successful healthcare clinics in Auckland, starting in Ōtara, where the focus was patient care.

"You've got to know when you have enough," she says as she talks about their charity work.  

The Patels sold their last remaining business in 2022, leaving them to focus on community work, which includes a Hindu temple they had built in Papatoetoe and a successful family harm prevention programme Gandhi Nivas.  Click here to  read.

* These  two stories are  part of a special RNZ series, RICH: The meaning of wealth in Aotearoa. Over several days, feature interviews by Corin Dann and Anusha Bradley with a diverse range of wealthy and powerful New Zealanders examine attitudes to wealth, ideas for making us a richer country and what to do with money when you have plenty of it.

pn948. New Caledonia on Brink of Civil War

 

Amid heightened global tensions and a local crisis centring on the efforts of the indigenous Kanak people to secure their rights, the restoration of long-lasting peace is necessary in New Caledonia as the threat of civil war looms.

Since 13 May 2024, the nickel-rich islands in the Southwest Pacific have experienced severe unrest, described by French President Emmanuel Macron as an ‘unprecedented insurrection movement’, with the indigenous Kanak population at the forefront of the riots. On 15 May, France declared a state of emergency in its Pacific territory. The riots have targeted vehicles and ambulances bound for hospitals in Noumea, affecting residents’ access to healthcare. Barricades, skirmishes with the police and looting has left nine dead and hundreds injured, inflicting hundreds of millions of euros in damage.

After one month of deadly unrest, Macron announced on 12 June a temporary suspension of the controversial voting reforms to restore order, though this fails to address the long-term issues concerning the future of New Caledonia. The French High Commissioner of Noumea confirmed on 17 June that a curfew will still remain in effect and public gatherings will remain prohibited. The transfer of seven New Caledonian pro-independence activists to prisons in mainland France following the recent unrest has fuelled a new wave of violence in the French Pacific territory since 22 June.

The unrest in New Caledonia stems from a controversial law allowing individuals living in the region for over ten years to vote in local elections, which the Kanak community views as discriminatory. The law contradicted the Noumea Accord, a 1998 agreement granting increased political power to the collegial elected government of New Caledonia, comprising independence and loyalist parties.    Click here to read more

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQVxbdndnNThgbdGltDwHpkNPDr

pn947. Fiji: a Small Ray of Hope with the appointment of Graeme Leung as Attorney-General

 

With the appointment of former Fiji Law Society President Graeme Leung as Attorney-General an important detail has changed in the Fiji political scene, one that could see a reversal — or at least a review— of some very questionable legal decisions by the outgoing Acting Attorney-General Siromi Turaga, and a clean, fresh start for Fiji.  

Siromi Turaga is the highly biased, politically-motivated AG  in cahouts with Acting Chief Justice Salesi Temo who made two illegal appointments: Alipate Qataki as a judge and John Rabuka as acting Director of Public Proscecutions. Both appointments were in breach of Fiji's Constitution. 

Further, Temo's overruling of Magistrate Seini Puamua who had virtually acquitted former PM and FijiFirst leader Voqere Bainimarama of charges against him was also questionable.  Temo's over-ruling resulted in Bainimarama (and former police chief Sitiveni Qihilo) being jailed which stripped Bainimarama of the FijiFirst leadership and denied him a place in parliament.  Thus, Temo effectively beheaded the largest party in parliament, FijiFirst party, and removed almost all parliamentary opposition to government. With only a two seat majority the government coalition of People's Alliance, National Federatlon Party and SODELPA, PM Sitiveni Rabuka must be very pleased indeed.

Which makes one ask why Graeme Leung's appointment?

It certainly adds much needed credibility and respectability to government which has been plagued with by a number of "salacious" scandals and internal divisions.

Leung's chief duty as AG  is to advise the PM on all legal matters.  Whether or not the PM heeds his advice is another thing.

Leung could (and I believe should) call for:

■ the appointment of a Chief Justice and the dismissal of Acting CJ Temo. (Temo's appointment was criticized by the Fiji Law Society) 

■ the cancellation of  the Alipate Qataki and John Rabuka appointments; 

■ the reinstatement of Director of  Public Prosecutions Chris Pryde who has been waiting for his appeal to be heard of over 14 months; 

■ an earlier hearing of the appeal of Elizabeth Rice, wrongfully stood down as Assistant Director of Public Prosecutions because she is "white";

■  the decision to deregister the Fiji First Party to be put on hold. It could be derigistered unless it changes its constitution by 28th April. The party needs time to recover from its current disarray following 17 of its 26 MPs voting with Government on the pay increase bill contrary to party instructions.

■ an early appeal hearing for Bainimarama (and former police chief Sitiveni Qihilo) against Tempo's ruling;

■ and perhaps a review of the USP case that was used to remove Bainimarama in the first place (see pn936).

-- ACW

pn946. Papua New Guinea landslide disaster: at least 2,000 dead

At least 2,000 people   have been killed in a major landslide in the remote Highlands province of Enga 600 km NW of the capital Port Moresby when the side of a mountain collapsed on Friday.  Aid rushed to the area is impeded by nearby tribal fighting. This article provides a good coverage while this article provides some additional detail.

Meanwhile, in the capital, it is unclear whether the existing government will remain in power.  A  vote of confidence in parliament today could see PM Marape toppled.

pn945. FijiFirst Party in Disarray. What's going to happen now?

 

Fiji Parliament chamber

Precisely when Fiji needs a strong and united Opposition party, more so than perhaps ever before, the FijiFirst Party has shown just how weak and disunited it is with members putting their own selfish monetary interests ahead of the party and the nation.  

Sixteen of its MPs, including the Leader of the Opposition Inia Seruiratu,  went against the party directive to  vote against or abstain from voting on a government motion to substantially increase salaries and benefits of all parliamentary members by up to 138%.

All 16 could be expelled from the party --and from parliament  -- for their actions. There are compelling factors to expel and not to expel them.

Graham Davis in Grubsheet gives all the details. Click here.

See also what others think about the increases:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/517803/fiji-mps-vote-for-salary-increases-as-public-faces-economic-hardships

pn944. Two Historical "Good Reads" on NZ and the Solomon Islands

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</td><td> photo </td></tr></tbody></table><br>

Victor Billot writes on his experience of the NewLabour and then Alliance parties. This is the first of two parts, published in Commonweal volume four in October 2023.

His personal story of Jim Anderton's New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. The last attempt to swing the political pendulum to the left. A little long winded; the best part is towards the middle and end. 

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/BLOG/FMfcgzGxTPGBwsrBBHKzfgQVdNcQTQbW

What Solomon Islanders thought about the American occupation in World War II. They saw Black soldiers in the same uniform as the White soldiers!

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/BLOG/FMfcgzGxTPGBwsrBBHKzfgQVdNcQTQbW

pn943. Not to be missed: No Māori Allowed. NZTV1 7:30 Tonight

 

pn941.Iwi pledges to use only te reo Māori to communicate with Goverment

A south Taranaki iwi will use only te reo Māori when corresponding or speaking with central government officials from now on and hopes other iwi and kaupapa Māori organisations will follow suit.

In a media release, Te Korowai o Ngāruahine Trust said its board and employees would all seek to use te reo when engaging with the Government. “If all our speakers across the motu utilised te reo Māori in their engagement with government, this will demonstrate demand for te reo Māori services in real terms and cause resourcing pressure on the overall government policy agenda,” chair Emma Gardiner said.

Speaking to Newsroom, the trust’s chief executive Te Aorangi Dillon said what started as a response to the Government’s policies on te ao Māori, including te reo, had prompted the iwi to reflect on the value of the campaign for language revitalisation. Read more ... https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/05/17/iwi-pledges-to-use-only-te-reo-maori-to-communicate-with-govt/

pn940. Pacific NGO alliance condemns France for 'betrayal of the Kanaky people'

 

An alliance of over two dozen Pacific non-government organisations have condemned France for what they say is a "betrayal" of New Caledonia's Kanak population.

In a statement, the group have also called for calm and peace as the civil unrest enters its eighth day after Paris adopted controversial constitutional amendment that would open up the local electoral rolls to allow French residents in who have been in New Caledonia for 10 years to vote in provincial elections.

It is a move that pro-independence protesters say would weaken the indigenous Kanak vote and the principle reason for the violent unrest.

The Pacific Regional Non-Government Organisations (PRNGOs) has condemned "the Macron government for its poorly hidden agenda of prolongling colonial control over the territory".

The alliance said Kanak leaders had called repeatedly for the withdrawal of the proposed constitutional changes that would endanger the indigenous peoples' right to self-determination and threaten ongoing peaceful dialogue about future arrangements for the territory for several months.

"The changes, proposed unilaterally by the Macron government, would remove voting eligibility provisions that have been preserved and protected under the 1998 Nouméa Accords as a safeguard for indigenous peoples against demographic changes that could make them a minority in their own land and block the path to freedom," the statement said.

pn939. Riots in New Caledonia

 

Constitutional amendments by the French parliament to allow people who had been resident in New Caledonia to vote have sparked off riots  by pro-independence groups in the capital Noumea. Some 10,000 rioters are involved. four people are dead and the riot leaders have been arrested.  

Last Wednesday, the French National Assembly voted 351 in favour (mostly right-wing parties) and 153 against (mostly left-wing parties) the proposed constitutional amendments that would open the electoral roll and allow those who have been residing in New Caledonia for an uninterrupted ten years to vote in local elections.

Le Monde says "the reform of the territory's electorate has reawakened a near-civil war atmosphere, because major inequalities disadvantaging Kanak people persist, and the government has seemed to be biased in favor of one side."

The rioters claim the French parliamant decision has broken a  20-year accord with the local indigenous Kanaks, and threatened to make the Kanak a minority in their own country.   French troops are being flown into the country, food is in short supply in Noumea, commercial flights are cancelled and the route to the airport is all but closed. Some 300 New Zealanders are currently in the country.

The Pacific Conference of Churches  has called for the UN to lead an impartial and competent dialogue mission to monitor the situation. In a statement on Friday, it said it "stands in deep solidarity with our sisters and brothers of Kanaky", saying the violence is born of frustration and pain. It said after 20 years of consensual management, the breakdown in dialogue between the French government and the independence fighters and the Kanak people is now a reality.

The Pacific Islands Forum and the Melanesian Spearhead Group have always supported the independence of New Caledonia. The Melanesian Spearhead Group and Vanuatu's prime minister Charlot Salwai has called on the French government to withdraw or annul the proposed constitutional amendments that sparked the civil unrest.

French Home Affairs and Overseas minister Gérald Darmanin refuses to accept the Kanak rationale for the riots. He says "This is a Mafia-like body which I do not amalgamate with political pro-independence parties...[it] is a group that claims itself to be pro-independence and commits looting, murders and violence." 

With such an attitude, useful dialogue is unlikely any time soon. Arresting the riot leaders is not the solution.

-- ACW, based mainly on RNZI reports.

pn938. Solomon Islands Post-Election. What, if enything, has changed?

 

Dr Jon Fraenkel provides the details. See hyperlink below. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/516264/solomon-islands-an-incumbent-s-defeat-and-resurrection

pn937. The Changing Composition of NZ's population due to emigration and immigration

Updated. See link at end.

Net migration loss of NZ citizens exceeds 50,000 a year for the first time

A record 52,500 New Zealand citizens left the country in the year ended March 31, according to Stats NZ.  The latest numbers were much higher than the previous record of 44,400 citizen departures, more than a decade ago.“This is the first time the annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens has exceeded 50,000,” Tehseen Islam of Stats NZ said this morning.

Stats NZ also said the provisional net migration gain of 111,100 in the year comprised a net gain of 163,600 non-New Zealand citizens that more than offset the net migration loss of 52,500 Kiwi citizens. For migrant arrivals in the March 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 49,800 arrivals. About 31,900 Philippines citizens arrived. About 26,800 arrivals were citizens of China and 25,800 were New Zealand citizens.

Read this update https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/15/stratospheric-exodus-of-skilled-workers-huge-loss-for-nz-expert/

pn936. Former Fiji PM Voqere Bainimarama sentenced to one year's jail

Bainimarama with cloth covering handcuffs
"so that his grandchildren would not see them."

Fiji's most popular leader in recent times and former PM 69-year old  Frank Bainimarama has been sentenced to one year's jail for "perverting the course of justice" by Acting Chief Jusice Selesi Temo.  Former Police Chief  Sitiveni Qiliho who acted on Bainimarama's instruction was sentenced to two years. 

The maximum penalty possible was 5 years for Bainimarama and 10 years for  Qiliho. 

Both had previously had the charges dismissed in the Magistrate's court by Magistrate Seini Puamau but her ruling was overruled by Acting Chief Justice Temo (see pn923).

The charges stem from an instruction in 2019 by Bainimarama to stop an investigation into claims by the then new  University of South Pacific's Vice-Chancellor Professor Pal Ahluwahia of alleged financial mismanagement by the administraton under the previous USP VC the late Professor Rajesh Chandra*, pertaining to questionable appointments, contract renewals, leave payments and back pay.

It is interesting to note that similar charges have been made against the VC's of Fiji's other two universities, the University of Fiji and the Fiji National University.   University of Fiji VC Professor Shaista Shameem says "complaints were likely to be put together by several 'identifiable disgruntled former management and academic staff.'"(see pn 825). And so could the complaints at USP. In my post of 5 February 2021 I noted there were 33 cases of alleged mismanagement against Professor Ahluwahia. Such is Fiji. What goes around comes around. 

I have previously commented that it is unusual for an incoming VC to criticize a previous administration, which seemed pointless anyway since there was no way of reversing appointments and renewals or recovering the alleged money lost in leave- and back pay.  I thought the new VC should "get on with the job" of administering the university and healing the divisions among his staff.

While the USP charge is questionable, the Rabuka government has made it clear that that they would "get" Bainimarama one way of another. With the slim majority in parliament and serious charges against some of its coalition partners government needed to find a way to distract attention from government and discredit the largest party in parliament Bainimarama's Fiji First Party. In the 55-seat parliament FF has 26 seats, Rabuka's People's Alliance has 21, the National Federation Party 5 and SODELPA 3.

If this charge had failed, it is rumoured they had another 30 charges they thought they could use against Bainimarama.

Imprisonment means that Bainimarama cannot stand in another election for several years unless he can get the judgment overturned  by appeal. This stands a good change of succeeding if the judges are independent, which Acting Chief Justice Temo most certainly is not.

 * Disclosure. Rajesh Chandra was a former student of mine in the 1960 and a senior colleague and friend in the 1990s.

-- ACW

pn935. Soon, could we be listening to only National Party , Act and NZP news and views?

As the nation's  public TV news and opinion channels start to close down to save government money, we wonder where it will stop.

 Could we, in a  year's time, be listening to only Government news, and the role of the fourth estate as a check on government have ceased until a more enlighted government is returned to power?

Read https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/03/thank-you-for-watching-midday-signs-off-for-the-final-time/

pn934. NZ MPs are in the top one percent of earners. Read how it happened.

 

Once, MPs were regarded as public servants and backbench MPs received salaries similar to secondary school teachers.

Now, MPs are in the top one percent of earners with backbench MPs being  paid $163,000, or $231,000 with perks added. The PM is paid $472,000 plus perks.

Bryce Edwards of the Democracy Project traces how it all happened in  "Accepting a significant pay rise shows how much MPs are out of touch."

He opens with: 

"How entitled are New Zealand’s politicians? Right now, MPs across the political spectrum look entirely out of touch in their unified stance of accepting the hefty pay increases recommended by the Remuneration Authority.

MPs should simply reject the pay increases – which they can easily do – rather than risk a legitimate public backlash from constituents who feel betrayed by an already well-paid political class that insists on austerity for others but not themselves."

 Read on by clicking here.

pn933. Solomon Islands Elections: a return of the incumbent government

Jeremiah Manele has been elected the new PM of Solomon Islands, with 31 votes over rival Matthew Wale's 18. 

 Foreign media has made much of the demise of former PM Manasseh Sogavere whose switch from recognition of Taiwan to the People's Republic of China has been seen as a major election issue. If this was so, it must have been a very minor issue. Manele was Foreign Minister under Sogavere when the switch was made and he has promised to maintain present relationships.

Moreover, Manele's victory signals a return of the incumbent government formerly headed by Manasseh Sogavare in the 50-seat parliament.

Manele's administration, which calls itself the Government for National Unity and Transformation (GNUT), is made up of three parties; his own Our Party with 15 seats, Manasseh Maelanga's People's First Party with 3 seats and Jamie Vokia's Kandere Party with one seat, a total of 19, together with the SI Party for Rural Advancement (1 seat) and support from among the 11 independents MPs.

Matthew Wale's opposition —that mainly opposed the switch from Taiwan— comprises his own Democratic Party with 11 seats, the United Party with 6 seats, and one seat from the Democratic Alliance party.

The fragmentation of both government and opposition groups is only too obvious, and with most loyalties linked to individuals, clans and island groups the next few years promise to be very volatile.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/02/solomon-islands-lawmakers-elect-jeremiah-manale-as-new-pm/

See also pn931.

-- ACW

pn932. Latest NZ Political Polls

 Three poll results have been released in the past three days, two of which show a Labour coalition could form government if an election were held on the poll date, 1News-Verian because NZ First dropped below the 5% threshold, Talbot Mills on numbers. 

But which date? The Talbot Mills poll ran though March, and the Roy Morgan poll for parts of March and April. The only poll conducted over a reasonable short time was 1News-Verian.  See table:

Tabot Mills tends to favour Labour and Roy Morgan National. 

Australian-based Roy Morgan also published a breakdown by age and sex of those polled. A similar breakdown from the other pollsters would have been useful.

Men, particularly older men, favoured National. Women favoured Labour and younger women Greens. Nearly a quarter (24.5%) of women aged 18-45 would vote Greens! See details below.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

	2023 NZ Election	April 2024	Women			Men
			All	18-49	50+	All	18-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
National	38.1	36.5	28	14.5	42.5	45.5	41.5	49.5
ACT	8.6	11	10	14	5.5	12	6.5	18
NZ First	6.1	5.5	4.5	3.5	6	6	4	8.5
National/ ACT/ NZ First	52.8	53	42.5	32	54	63.5	52	76
Labour	26.9	24.5	28	25	31	21.5	25.5	16.5
Greens	11.6	13	16.5	24.5	7.5	9.5	16	2.5
Maori Party	3.1	5.5	9.5	16	2.5	1.5	2	1
Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party	41.6	43	54	65.5	41	32.5	43.5	20
Others	5.6	4	3.5	2.5	5	4	4.5	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The polls show that the National Coalition has lost some support since the elections and that Labour's standing is also not spectacular. 

PM Luxon had 23% support as preferred PM, down 2%, while Opposition leader Hipkins had 16%, up a miserable 1%.

In the 1News Verian Poll, voters were also asked: "Which of the [coalition] party leaders do you think has the most influence on Government decisions?"

Around 51% responded with the prime minister, while about 49% did not.

Out of those who didn't believe the National leader was in control, 23% believed New Zealand First's Winston Peters had the most influence, 10% said ACT's David Seymour was in charge, whilst 17% said they didn't know who was behind the wheel. 

Could New Zealanders be disallusioned with a jaded political line up on both sides of the political divide?

-- ACW